I've stated this again and again, but I think it just sounds so outlandish that people don't buy it. As strange as it sounds, the state that produced our current white house village idiot, very well could go blue. Why? The makeup of the state. Yes, you have the super-conservative core there. But you also have cities with large numbers moving in (or being born and coming of age). Not to mention the large contingent from New Orleans that have remained. Of course, you wouldn't get this idea from the press. (Unless you live in conservative Texas and get to hear about them damn (any number of censored nouns) taken' over.)
But, I think for the first time, we have some real solid evidence of the soon to happen turn over - the Primary. What's the story?
Here's the numbers:
Clinton votes: 1,455,959
Obama votes: 1,356,330
Total of ALL Republican votes: 1,319,960
Put another way: the number of democratic voters for EACH Democrat candidate outnumbers the TOTAL Republican voters. Given that Democrats at the primary outnumbered the Republicans by a near 2:1 margin, things may very well get interesting in the lone star state.
Compare this to 8 years ago, when the Republicans primary voter count hit double the Democrats, and further, compare that to 4 years ago where the count of Democrat primary voters was only 1/3 this count. I don't think it'll happen this election, but if/when Texas goes blue, the Republicans can very well count themselves out of the white house.
2 months ago
4 comments:
I would love that!
Well, just as a side note to consider, the Republicans pretty well already know who their candidate is, so a lot of us don't see the point in voting in the primary, like the Dems would see need to do. Seeing as their race is currently between two people and ours was *sorta* between McCain and Huckabee, but just because Huckabee wouldn't give it up before Tuesday.
Just my opinion, but I'm pretty sure that would be the explanation for those numbers. Interesting theory, though...
Yeah, I realize that was part of what was going on - which is why the secondary part here was so important - the number of Democrat primary voters has gone up over triple from 2004. If the Democrats can pull back the primary voters, and they bring some friends, I wouldn't be suprised to see a previous 20 point spread cut in half.
My bet: Democrats break the 40% mark this election, possibly even 45....
Hey, I'm all for any group that actually gets out and votes!
But if Hills and Obama keep at each other the way they have, they might just ensure a McCain victory, or so they're saying on the news this morning.
I really can't wait to see how it all plays out...
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